What will happen under Harris or Trump?

Talk is cheap — here's what the betting markets say

Will inflation in 2025 be below 2.5%?

Currently 2.4%, per Bureau of Labor Statistics

+34%

chance if Harris

$1056 traded201 traders

Will undocumented immigration go down?

2025 vs 2024 southwest land border encounters, per US CBP

+18%

chance if Trump

$490 traded224 traders

Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine?

30 days with <100 Russian soldier fatalities before Nov 2026, per Ukraine Ministry of Defence

+21%

chance if Trump

$972 traded324 traders

Will gas prices stay under $4 a gallon?

US monthly average (currently $3.26), per Energy Information Administration

+10%

chance if Trump

$394 traded107 traders

Will the US enter a recession before 2027?

Per St. Louis Fed's Sahm rule recession indicator

+17%

chance if Trump

$756 traded152 traders

Will there be major federal policy on AI?

Executive order or legislation passed before Nov 2026

+9%

chance if Harris

$394 traded117 traders

How accurate are prediction markets? Better than most pundits.
Either they're right, or you can make money betting against them.
Learn more here, or see caveats here.

made with 🇺🇸 by Nate Foss and Austin Chen